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Last winter, employers started cutting jobs and growth slowed significantly, but the decline appears to have accelerated over the summer.
The NBER measures five factors to define when a recession is occurring. That's everything produced businesses and individuals in the United States.
It analyses and compares the behaviour of key macroeconomic variables such as consumption, investment, unemployment, money supply, inflation, stock prices, etc., which may have different dynamics before, during and after the recession.
It identifies turning points which act as a reference point for the construction of coincident, leading and lagging indicators of the economy.
"Evidence other than the ambiguous movements of the quarterly product-side measure of domestic production confirmed that conclusion.
Many of these indicators, including monthly data on the largest component of GDP, consumption, have declined sharply in recent months." The NBER committee could eventually conclude that the recession has already ended.